Rupee surges to 6-month highs: What controls its next move? Experts list 3 key triggers
Executive Brief • Key Highlights
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- ✓The rupee surged to six-month highs, gaining 3.25% from its early-October low.
- ✓Experts said the recovery faces risks from $30 billion FPI outflows in 2026 through November 6.
- ✓Garima Kapoor of Elara Capital said, “We expect a range around 93.0–95.0 for now in the immediate term unless oil shifts.”
Story at a Glance
- Category
- Indian Markets
- Reported By
- Financial Express
- Reading Speed
- 5 Minute(s)
- Market Focus
- India Economy
Divya Mandaliya, Commodity & Currency Research Analyst at Anand Rathi, however, believed that “the probability of USD/INR closing 2026 above 94 stands at roughly 65–70%.”
Economists like IDFC FIRST Bank and Elara Capital also projected the USD/INR exchange rate at 92-94 by December 2026.
Rupee’s recovery faces risks from $30 billion FPI outflows
Divya Mandaliya of Anand Rathi highlighted that the currency has gained nearly 3.25% from its early-October low of around 96.80, supported by foreign portfolio inflows, a softer dollar and falling crude prices.
“However, the recovery may prove temporary rather than structural, as foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn approximately $30 billion from Indian equities in 2026 through November 6, despite a reversal to nearly $5 billion in net inflows during November. Crude oil also remains a key risk, with any rebound likely to increase India’s import bill and dollar demand,” Mandaliya of Anand Rathi noted.
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