Gold Futures: Gold faces inflation headwinds on hawkish Fed tilt; $4,150 stays key hurdle

Gold edged higher today to trade above $4,050 an ounce, but the bounce was modest after Tuesday's near 3 per cent slide, the metal's sharpest single-session decline in recent weeks. The sell-off followed a firmer dollar on a hotter-than-expected US inflation print and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, erasing Monday's gains after a sharp fall in crude lifted bullion above $4,140.

What stands out is that oil prices have already fallen sharply, yet gold has not risen decisively and remains range-bound. That suggests oil still matters for gold, but core inflation and the Fed's reaction function now carry greater weight.

The path to this point has been uneven. After peaking near $4,700 in late August, gold fell to a one-year low of $3,870 in late October, logging back-to-back monthly declines in September and October. Crude oil at six-month highs kept inflation worries alive, while the AI and tech sell-off triggered margin calls that forced investors to liquidate gold to cover losses elsewhere. A partial recovery followed in early November, with gold reaching $4,146 as the dollar softened and oil cooled, before a strong payrolls report lifted rate expectations and pared part of that move.